Open interest relative to price trend
There are 2 components to futures open interest data:
Non-expiring futures contracts (also known as perpetual swaps or perpetuals)
Expiring futures contracts
Open interest | Price trend | Implications |
---|---|---|
High and rising | Rising | Over-leveraged long positions, potential bearish reversal |
Remains high | Falling from peak | Traders buying the dip on leverage, exposing themselves to a long squeeze |
High and rising | Falling | Over-leveraged short positions, potential bullish reversal |
Remains high | Rising from bottom | Traders shorting the spike on leverage, exposing themselves to a short squeeze |
When open interest is falling, it indicates a reversal is taking place.
When open interest is low, it indicates that leverage levels are low (significant de-leveraging has taken place).
Open interest is positively correlated to volatility. Option prices, represented by implied volatility, is positively correlated with open interest.
Sources of open interest data are:
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